General Information for You

A List of Best Aphrodisiac Foods for Valentine's Day

2012-01-28T04:31:00.000+07:00

Celebrated as the most romantic day of the year, Valentine's Day brings with it flowers, candies, cookies, chocolates, cupid, candlelight and love. Our romantic fantasies may begin with Cupid and Roses, but somehow they always seem to end with luscious food, because no celebration is complete without delicious food, and perhaps some alcohol! It is probably a universal belief that certain food and beverages can act as strong aphrodisiacs due to certain chemicals they release in our bodies, as chocolate has been proven to do. But most of the times they excite many of our senses through a combination of taste, texture and appearance. The shape of some foods is highly associated with arousal in humans. But whatever may be the reason, it's always a good idea to familiarize yourself with some foods that can act as aphrodisiacs, and as Valentine's Day is around the corner, whether you are planning a romantic dinner or looking for gift ideas, here's something that will keep you right on track! (img source)

Chocolate - Legend says that the Mayan civilization worshipped chocolate, believing it was "food for the Gods." Scientists have studied this candy, and found that chocolate releases serotonin and phenylethylamine, chemicals which make people feel blissful. Some researchers also claim that chocolate may affect the brain the way marijuana does, putting the consumer in a state of temporary euphoria.

Alcohol - This one is a no-brainer as we all know how spirits can make us a little tipsy and let you feel high. The magic of champagnes and wines can best be attributed to their ability to lower one's inhibitions, and create a head-rush.

Bananas - Rich in potassium and Vitamin B, bananas are a feel-good food. They also increase blod sugar instantaneously. So warm bananas served as a light dessert with whip cream or sauce can be a great choice for Valentie's Day!

Oysters - Because of their shape, oysters have thought to have been aphrodisiacs for thousands of years. They are known to be high in zinc, which has been associated with improving sexual potency in men. Back in old days, both men and women ate raw oysters, believing that doing so would increase both arousal and fertility.

Chillies/Spicy Food - Chillies can literally add "spice" to your life! These invigorating spices has an exotic reputation and can stimulate endorphins, which in turn, can really turn you on. (But moderation is the key; don't start eating raw chillies or you could end up with an ulcer!!)

Honey - Honey is made through pollination and is a symbol of procreation. The word "honeymoon" got its name from mead, an alcoholic beverage made from honey, which was given to the happy couple. This pure form of sugar can sure prove to be handy as you plan your romantic meals!

Fennel - In the 1930's fennel was found to be a source of natural plant estrogens. Use of fennel as an aphrodisiac dates back to the Egyptian times where it was used as "libido enhancement".

Ginger and Garlic - Extremely strange, but true! Both these spices have been known to increase blood circulation, and hence libido. But make sure to brush your teeth or use a mouth freshner later or you might not get the response you anticipated!:)

Vanilla - This age-old bean is said to induce passion due t its erotic scent and fragrance. Using fresh vanilla beans seems to heighten both the flavor and the desire!

Raspberries and Strawberries - Perfect foods for hand feeding your lover, both these luscious fruits are high in vitamin C and make a sweet light dessert. They also pair the best with chocolates and champagne!

There is no scientific claim or tests that prove any of this to be true, and yet people like to believe in Aphrodisiacs. Does it really work? You can find some basic theory and explanation here. As for me, I say that ultimately, its our feelings and the company of a loved one which makes any occasion special. True, some foods can effectively change our hormonal levels, and hence put us in a buoyant mood. Some say it's just in our heads! Well, it really doesn't matter; as long as you have love in your life, any day is Valentine's Day, and any food can be an Aphrodisiac!

Free 2012 Calendar Giveaway on Fun and Food Cafe

2012-01-20T01:28:00.000+07:00

I opened my mail this morning and I am excited to see that Fun and Food Cafe's custom calendar for 2012 has finally arrived! Here's a preview of how it looks like! it looks so cute, and so inviting, just the way I wanted it:)I wanted to organize a giveaway in the New Year, but due to delays in printing and shipping, it got pushed off. But nevertheless, its still mid-January, and I have a cool calendar with delicious food photos to give away to one lucky reader on FFC!

There are 12 amazing pictures for every month to inspire you to cook every day as you mark your calendars. These are some of the my favorite recipes, and I am sure they will brighten up your year, just as they did mine. The cute design will be perfect for any place, whether its your kitchen, a kid's room, or even your work space!

For details on how you can get this Free calendar, check out this Giveaway post on Fun and Food Cafe
http://www.funandfoodcafe.com/2012/01/ffc-custom-calendar-2012-giveaway.html

May the best foodie win! Happy 2012!

How to Make Your Own Soy Milk

2012-01-19T22:00:00.000+07:00

Many people have allergies to dairy, or are lactose-intolerant, making it inevitable for them to use milk alternatives, thereby choosing Soymilk instead of regular milk. And though several brands and flavors of Soymilk is available out there in the stores, if you use it on a daily basis, this can get to be an expensive affair! But, by making your own Soymilk at home, you can save tonnes of money, as well as get fresh milk every 3-4 days. Its really easy, and unbelievably cheap, plus you can use the leftover "Okara" (the pulp from the soybeans after the milk is extracted) to make delicious Soybean burgers, or any other soy-based recipe! So here goes, make your own Soymilk using 3 ingredients, and in 5 easy steps! [photo courtesy of US Agricultural Research Service]

Soya beans are almost a staple food in the US now. They are packed with proteins, and can be eaten raw, as Edamame beans, or as dried beans that are used below to make SoyMilk.

Ingredients
1 cup dry soybeans
sweetener (honey, barley malt or sugar) - add to your taste
water (about 12-15 cups)
Note: Generally, you need about 125 g whole soya beans and 1 liter of water to make 1 liter of soy milk.
Flavoring (optional, like Chocolate, Vanilla, or Almond essence)

Method
Soak the beans overnight or longer(like 10-14 hours). Discard the water and rinse the beans thoroughly. This will also help loosen the hull so you can remove them. This helps in better extraction of soy milk.

Now throw one part beans and 2 parts water into the blender, preferably a high-duty one, like Vitamix, and whiz as long as you can. The finer the pulp, the higher the yield of milk will be. Repeat for any remaining beans.

Take a colander over a large pot, then line it with a cheese-cloth. Pour the mush into cloth-lined colander, and pour the remaining water(if any left) over the pulp.

Now fold the cloth over the mush and press to get as much of the milk out as possible. Save the mush (which is now known as "okara") to make something out of it, like soybean burgers or patties.

Next, bring the extracted milk to a boil, and let it boil for about 5-7 minutes. Reduce the heat, let it simmer for another few minutes, then turn the heat off. Add the desired amount of sweetener to your taste, and even any other flavoring if you want, then allow to cool completely to room temperature. Add the

After cooling, the soy milk is ready and can be kept in the fridge for another 3 days. Soymilk can rot fast, so if you can't use it quickly enough, don't make too much. You can freeze it, but when you thaw it, be prepared for a cottage-cheese kind of taste when you drink it. Adding sweetener and additional flavoring can help reduce this distinct taste though.

There your Soymilk is ready, and now you can go ahead and enjoy it by itself, or use it as a base for making delicious Soymilk Smoothies!

Soymilk Smoothies
Cranberry SoyMilk & Green Tea Smoothie
Vegan Chocolate & Peanut butter Smoothie

Interactive Map Charts

2012-01-18T20:50:00.000+07:00

Remarkably interesting interactive charts at Chartsbin.

Just some examples:

- Press on 'Key' to toggle descrition square
- Press on Big Screen to view more details

1. Current World Life Expectancy at Birth

via chartsbin.com

2.Body Mass Index (BMI) by Country

via chartsbin.com

Want more chart examples with dropdown-menus for non-IE-users...?

Click Here

It's also possible to
- Embed Chartsbin charts in your Powerpoint presentation!
- Search voor Chartsbin charts

Enjoy!

Pensionpoly

2012-01-18T05:50:00.000+07:00

Brainteaser...... What skills do you need to manage a pension fund?

Whatever brilliant your answer, I'm sure that the 'art of playing Monopoly' wasn't a part of it.

Yet, playing Monopoly and managing a pension fund [ let's call it Pensionpoly] have a lot in common nowadays.

The main difference is that with Monopoly you can actually calculate the probability you land on one of the forty squares, while in Pensionpoly you THINK you can calculate the probability of the return of a certain asset class.

The similarities between Monopoly and Pensionpoly are that while executing a certain buying strategy (whether houses, hotels, stocks, bonds or other asset classes), the - short term - outcome also depends on the (financial) effects of the squares we land on and on a number of uncertain events as a result of drawing Chance and Community Chest cards.

Monopoly probabilities
As described by Jörg Bewersdorff, the probability of landing on a particular square, basically can be calculated either on basis of Markov Chains or by means of applying the famous Monte Carlo method.

As an example here's the outcome of lending on a particular square on basis of a Monte Carlo simulation (more than 60.000 observations).

What's striking is that there's a 9.3% chance of ending up in jail.....

Of course, playing Monopoly takes a lot more than just calculating the probability on which square you'll be landing. Some excellent calculations have been made by Truman Collins (2005) , that include:

Long term probabilities for ending up on each of the squares
Expected income per opponent roll on all properties and other squares
Expected number of opponent rolls to lose or recoup mortgages

Pensionpoly
Back to Pensionpoly....
You can now practice you skills in playing Pensionpoly by downloading the Pensionpoly board game here.

Unzip (no viruses) the download (2Mb) file, click on 'Monopoly.exe' and start playing Pensionpoly in a minute.

Playing Pensionpoly is like playing Monopoly, with the following main differences:

Cities are replaced by Asset Classes
Streets are investment categories in a certain Asset Class
'Buying Houses' is replaced by hiring (buying, appointing) Fund Managers (F-Managers);
Five Fund managers make no Hotel, but a Fund Team (F-Team)
Chance cards are replaced by Asset (chance) cards
Community Chest cards are replaced by Liability (chance) cards

Pensionpoly is a nice example of what is called Gamification. More info about this subject on Pension Gamification.....

Have fun playing Pensionpoly and don't forget to play normal Monopoly with this application as well !

Sources and related links
- Bewersdorff: Monopoly in the view of mathematics (2002)
- German: Monopoly im Blickwinkel der Mathematik
- Collins: Probabilities in the Game of Monopoly (2005)

- Create your own Monopoly at Parkeeerbonnen (Dutch)
- Direct download Monopoly from Parkeerbonnen
- Markov Chains and Monopoly (Scribd)

- 18-karat solid gold Monopoly set (Museum of American Finance)

Download
- - Download Pensionpoly (zip file)

Recreating Food Traditions via the Internet

2012-01-14T21:10:00.000+07:00

There is good and bad about the relationship between food and the internet. I can talk to fellow food bloggers around the world, experience the spice markets of Morocco, or see a patisserie in Paris, or "attend a street festival in LA, all in the same day. I can use resources like Food Blog Search, Epicurious, Food Network, to find that perfect dish to make with the fresh brussels sprouts I picked up at the Farmer's Market, or something different to do with my Thanksgiving leftovers. I can drool over food "porn" at Tastespotting and Foodgawker, and establish new relationships with the foodies who have posted there.

All of these things are great, but recently, I have seen a couple of examples that illustrate the value of the internet as a means to preserve and share food traditions. Just a couple of days ago a co-worker of mine came to me and asked if I know where she could find a recipe for something her mom used to make called Texas Cake. She described it to me as a rich and moist chocolate cake that was made with cocoa with chocolate frosting all made from scratch. She went on to recount how if she came home from school and her mom had made Texas cake she knew that someone was coming over. This friend has cookbooks and recipe cards from her mother, who had passed, but a search through them had not yielded the prized recipe. I told her that she should do an internet search since it is likely that someone else on the world wide web also had fond memories of that cake. About 15 minute later she IM'd me saying she had found a recipe online that sounded like her mom's cake that held such fond memories, but of course I knew this already because her food memories had prompted me to look up the recipe as well so I could add it to my list of recipes to try.

Only 20 years ago this recipe and the memories with it could have been passed on a recipe card to family, neighbors, church groups, but now people in Kansas City and Kabul can find it via a simple search. With extended families the exception rather than the rule in modern industrialized society, the internet provides a high tech way to continue and even recreate old food traditions.I guess we are a new generation since the computer and internet has become an instrument to preserve and restore food traditions and making the world our recipe box!

Risky and Happy 2012

2012-01-02T21:46:00.000+07:00

A happy new year to all Actuary-Info readers!

While actuaries and other risk mangers are still trying to cope with 'real' (btw: what's really real?) risks, a lot of other people are still worried about the risk of risks:

The end of the world

as (assumed) predicted by the Mayans!

Maya Calendar Explained

Consult Cathryn Reese-Taylor (program director, department Archeology University of Calgary) (or read this link) for who's interested in the interesting explanation behind the end of the Maya calender.

In short, it turns out that 21 December 2012 is simply the end of the 13th baktun, a period of roughly 5200 years that the Maya used as a period-unit for counting time. Just like we in our culture use millennial periods for constructing time.

Besides this fact, the Maya predicted other events far into the future, well beyond 2012. Problem solved!

2012: year of Risks
Having said all of this, it doesn't imply that 2012 will not turn out to become a year of risks: (aamof) It Will!

New Risk Management

Main issue will be that we'll have to change our view on Risk Management in 2012 from a classical view to a new self-conscious view ...

The old classical view goes something like this:

In the old view, Regulation and Governance are more or less considered as 'constant' and as a 'condition you have to meet'.

However, nothing is farther from the truth.
In the last decade we've seen that changes in Regulation substantially have influenced the way we calculated, perceived and managed risk. The obvious examples are everywhere around us: Solvency II, Basel I/II/III, AIFMD, MIFID, OTC, etc., etc.........

So, in fact the new simplified Risk Management looks (less spectacular) more like this:

In this 'New' Risk Model, EVERYTHING -including Risk management itself, is considered as RISK!

Main issue is not to take anything (or risk) for granted and to (re)consider each risk element (minimal) once a year in order to keep RISK FIT.

Just a few illustrations on some of the new risk topics to set the mind in the right direction:

I. Regulation Risk
It's not just a case of checking if you're Regulation Risk Compliant. It's also anticipating on coming new legislation, directives and rules. Not only 'formal' new directives (like Solvency) but also informal rules like CSR's "acting green" are important. Not acting pro-active could cause a severe reputation risk.

II. Governance Risk
It's not only about improving (corporate) governance quality and reducing the risk of governance failures, it's more. Managing the risk of governance risk, is double and independent checking on:
- Truly independence of (supervisory) board members
- Timely (3 years) rotation
- Appointing timely 'new' knowledge in boards, audit/investment committees
- Transparent reporting to shareholders and regulators about (different) views
   and explaining WHY decisions have been taken the way they are, including
   pro and contra arguments.

III. 'Risk Appetite' Risk
- Check (by reporting!) regularly if your risk budget and risk results
   (SD, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Information ratio, etc) are still in
   line with your risk appetite. If not: Act upon it!
- Compare your risk appetite and the results with those of compettitors.

IV. Models and Data Risk
Change and adapt your data and used models regularly with reality.
You do? ......
E.g.: Risk is not just Standard Deviation (SD), it's really - as we've seen - about standard deviation. If so, why are Efficient frontiers in ALM still calculated and published on basis of simple (but not applicable anymore!) SD.

Anyhow.... Risky and Happy 2012 Risks!

Related Links:
- Definitions: SD, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Information ratio, etc
- PWC European financial regulation updates
- EIFR
- Bloomberg Financial regulation
- ICFR: What does good regulation look like?

Sylvester: ABP, Cut Pensions?

2012-01-01T04:16:00.000+07:00

At the end of 2011, let's take a short view on the madness around cutting pensions.

As a leading example, I'll discuss ABP, a Dutch 240 billion pension fund and one of the largest pension funds in the world.

Being fanatic blog readers and actuaries, you're probably 'in' for a teasing joke on Sylvester or 'New Years Eve'.

As you all know communication is key in the pension business. However, as pension investment results get more volatile and complex (in time) to explain, communication about pension issues becomes more and more Chinese for ordinary pension members.

The latest threat, cutting pension benefits, urges board members to develop themselves to a kind of 'five-legged sheep' .... The new 'normal' pension board member is undoubtedly the ideal combination of an actuary, accountant, investment specialist, communication expert, ICT specialist and - on top of - a keen psychologist.

Communication is a Profession
I'll give a short slightly exaggerated demonstration to all pension board members and actuaries of how difficult reading and understanding a well meant pension board message is, to an average pension member.

In order to 'save what can be saved' ABP's Vice-Chair Joop van Lunteren pleads for political help in ABP's 2011 Q3 Press Release.
Besides the question if a press release is indeed the right place for such a call, most pension members will have a hard time to understand what Mr. Van Lunteren wants so rightfully to express. For these pension members Mr. van Lunteren's message is more like Chinese...

ABP's Q3 Results: Cutting Pensions?
Now to more serious business... Altough ABP's Q3 results are indeed not splendid,

the call for a more long term sustainable valuation system that makes pension funds less dependent upon volatile interest rates makes sense!

Also, there no need for panic (direct cutting measures), as from the 2010 annual report we can find that the annual benefits payments summed up to around € 7.5 billion on a total of assets of around € 240 Billion. If ABP would be allowed to wait for the effects of taken measures en developing markets for another five years, a 10% cutting of benefits would only have an impact of around € 4 to 6 billion on the total assets of around € 240 mln.
More info about Cutting Pension rights on Actuary Info....

Happy Silvester and good luck ABP!

Sources/Links:
- ABP Q3 Press Release
- ABP Annual Report 2010
- Ming Imperial Fonts

How To Make Caramel Sauce

2011-12-17T01:34:00.000+07:00

Caramel is the backbone of caramel sauce, but it’s also ideal for coating nuts, fresh fruit, or the bottom of ramekins for Crème Caramel(pictured above) and other caramel-topped desserts. And it can add a touch of sweet and gooey to anything from cakes and tarts to brownies and ice creams. Contrary to what one might think, making Caramel Sauce at home is not too hard. It just needs some patience, and you need to stand hovering above the stove as sugar can go from Caramel to burnt in no time! I fell in love with the Caramel Apples over at Simply Recipes, so I thought I'd give the Basic Caramel Sauce a try. If you are someone who shares the fear of making Caramel at home, I hope this post helps you to don your apron and start cooking. its caramel time! [Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons]

I looked around at a few other Caramel recipes, and the one that worked was a combination from Ina Garten's recipe and the one at Epicurious. I'm also suggesting some delicious variations at the end, because everyone likes some change, and I am sure you will love these variations!

Ingredients
Yields 1 3/4 cup Sauce

1 1/2 cups sugar
1/3 cup water
1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cups heavy cream
1/2 vanilla extract

Method
Fill a cup measure halfway with water and put a pastry brush in it; this will be used for washing down the sides of the pan to prevent crystallization.

Mix the water and sugar in a large heavy-bottomed saucepan. Cover and cook over low heat until the sugar dissolves. Increase the heat and boil uncovered until the sugar turns a medium brown, about 5 to 7 minutes, stirring occasionally with a wooden spoon.

Note: Watch it carefully at the end, as it will go from caramel to burnt caramel very quickly. Stand back to avoid splattering, and gradually add the cream and the vanilla extract. Simmer until the caramel dissolves and the sauce is smooth and thick, about 2 minutes.

Serve warm, or add another 1/4 cup of heavy cream and serve at room temperature.

Your basic Caramel Sauce is ready. You can pour it over your choice of dessert and enjoy!

Variations
Cinnamon Caramel Sauce: Add 1/2 teaspoon of ground cinnamon to the basic recipe above. This makes for a very flavorful sauce.

Coffee Caramel Sauce: Add 1 Tablespoon of freshly brewed coffee to the basic recipe above and cook as directed. Works great with ice creams and puddings.

Brandy or Bourbon Caramel Sauce: Add 1 Tablespoon brandy or bourbon to the basic recipe above and cook as directed. Perfect for Thanksgiving celebrations!

Orange-Cardamom Caramel Sauce: In a small saucepan, combine 1-1/2 cups fresh orange juice with 2 Tbs. plus 2 tsp. finely grated orange zest, bring to a boil, and cook until reduced to about 1/2 cup. Pour through a fine sieve, pressing against the zest to release all the liquid. Stir the strained, reduced orange juice and 4 tsp. ground cardamom into the cooled caramel sauce. A beautiful topping for Coffee Cakes and fruity desserts.

Hope you liked this Caramel Sauce recipe, and the suggested variations. Now go and get your Caramel Apples ready for Halloween this weekend!

For more Holiday inspiration, check out this article on Ideas & Themes for Halloween, and also a list of Easy Halloween Party Recipes

Humor: Pickles Risk Management Lesson

2011-12-16T20:37:00.000+07:00

All credits to the author of Pickles:Brian Crane

Original Sources /Links:

- Gocomics : Pickles
- The art of making Pickles
- Pickles Wikipedia
- Brian Crane

Forecast Period Principle

2011-12-12T13:42:00.000+07:00

As actuaries we mostly try to shape the data for our models (ALM, Stress Tests, Assessments, Etc.) on basis of economic scenarios.

Recently we have experienced (Sub prime crisis, Bank crisis, Country crisis, Currency crisis, Debt crisis, etc) that our economy isn't that stable as we might perhaps have estimated or hoped (what's the difference nowadays?) .............

In other words:

Our Economy is chaotic by nature

Therefore, to learn how to shape our data, models and equations in a more chaotic or fuzzy way, let's take a look at the more chaotic processes of nature self.

Sea Level Rising
As an example let's pick out a major discussion: Sea level rising!
The discussion around this topic resembles the fuzzy way we discuss our economic and financial system. Some say sea level is rising and our (grand)children will surely drown. Others tell us not to worry. Who's right?

As the above graph - based on data of the University of Colorado - clearly shows, sea level is rising (Trend: ~3.1mm/year).

But just like in risk management models, the devil is in the details and (on the other hand) God's wisdom rules in time......

Actuarial devil watchers will have noticed a strange 'hockey schtick' in the above graph: Sea level is actually declining since 2007.

This leads to the key question:

What is a reliable Sea Level long term forecast?

How to answer this question...

Forecast Period Principle
To draw sensible forecast conclusions, the period of the measured and analyzed historical facts and their (explaining) context, has to be of the same order of magnitude as the period we use to (context-dependable) project our data in the future.

So if we want to say something about for instance the next 14000 years, we should (also) look back 14000 years:

From the above chart it's clear that forecasts about sea level forecast on basis of 4, 10 or even 50 years are madman's exercises and useless.

On the long term (10-100 years) sea level will most likely keep rising at an average 3-4mm/year rate. So you don't need to calculate if your home will turn into an houseboat, unless....

Pension Funds and 'Forecast Period Principle'
Now let's apply the 'Forecast Period Principle' on pension funds...

Pension funds have a life span of more than hundred years, pension fund members have a life span of about 70-80 years.
Therefore projections and valuation of pension funds should also take place on basis of periods and (long) term discount rates of the same order of magnitude (10-50-100 years) as their life span.
This implies that calculating coverage ratio's on a daily basis is perhaps a nice way to make a living as actuary, but practical completely inadequate. As it serves no goal, leads to unnecessary worries and misleads pension board members.
Lesson: calculate coverage ratios on 1,5 and 10 year basis and take action if all these coverage ratios start pointing in the same direction....

Unless.... : Langton Warning Principle

Yet, if you calculated your forecast on basis of the 'Forecast Period Principle', do not go to sleep peacefully!

Even if your models and visual inspection indicate a steady development, there's always the risk of a sudden 'Langton's Event' (loss).

In other words:

So take the 'Langton Warning Principle' serious and try to stay alert as risk manager in every possible circumstance.

Do you want to learn more about Langton's principle? Read: Langton's Actuarial Ant

Conclusions
'Crisis' will become business as usual for actuaries. Coming years, our short term 'Langton Warning Principle models' will be just as important as our steady forecasts on basis of the 'Forecast Period Principle'. Don't mix them up!!

Keep in mind the warning of NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco:

“We have good reason to believe that what happened this year is not an anomaly, but instead is a harbinger of what is to come.”
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco (2011)

Key Question

Finally, the crisis key question will be:
Are we Sinking or Thinking?

Answer: It's all a matter of communication!

Related links/Sources
- Langton's Actuarial Ant
- Colorado University: Sea level
- Some Actuarial Formula of Life Insurance for Fuzzy Markets
- Google books: Actuaries' survival guide: how to succeed
- Fractals & Actuaries (1997)
- What about my town, when sea level rises X meter?
- actual and historical sea levels: sea levels online
- Sea levels Online
- NOAA Report
- Sea level Spredsheet of this Blog
- Original Picture: Climate Change Science Compendium 2009

Peppermint and Vanilla Butter Cookies

2011-12-08T22:58:00.000+07:00

Just as wreaths, stockings and mistletoes signify the spirit of christmas, cookies and cakes do their part in spreading the joy all around. As the festival of christmas is just a few days away, people have started baking goodies and packing them in decorative tin boxes and wrapping papers, shipping them across to their loved ones and friends, wishing them joy and success in the days to come. Some flavors and smells reign the kitchens in these festive days, including, but not limited to chocolate, peppermint, vanilla, and of course, gingerbread! Joining in the fun and having found a reason to bake more often, I decided to go for a batch of these beautiful pink and white Swirl Cookies flavored with peppermint and vanilla. I love the candy canes and the beautiful ribbon patterns that they form, but I can't take too much of peppermint in one go. So here's the perfect solution, these basic sugar cookies, with a hint of peppermint and all the goodness of the lovely colors.

Ingredients
1 cup butter or margarine - softened
1/3 cup powdered sugar
1 tspn vanilla essence
2 cups all-purpose flour
1/4 tspn peppermint extract
1/4 tspn red food color

Method
Heat oven to 350°F. In a large bowl, beat butter, powdered sugar and vanilla with electric mixer on medium speed. Stir in the flour, then divide the dough in half. Stir peppermint extract and food color into one half of dough, while keeping the other part as it is.

Now again divide each color of dough in half (making 2 white and 2 pink parts).

Now take each part of the dough, and roll it on a generously floured surface into a thick cylindrical rope, about 12 inches long. Place 2 ropes, 1 red and 1 white, side by side. Now twist them together with your hands so they get entwined. Repeat with the remaining 2 pieces of dough.

Now make small balls from each double-colored dough, then shape each into a flat cookie shape. You can use a cookie cutter to give them shape, or just grease a steel bowl (katori) with oil and use this to give shape to the cookie. It should be fairly easy to do it with your hands too, just shape them like small cutlets.

Place them about 1 inch apart on ungreased cookie sheet. Bake the cookies for 10-12 minutes or until set. Remove from cookie sheet and allow to cool completely on the wire rack. There, your beautiful pink and white swirled cookies are ready to add a festive decor to your holiday baking!

Let's relive the spirit of Christmas; bake a batch of cookies and donate them to any organisation and then feel happy on seeing the smiles on the faces of little children. This is my contribution to the "Drop In and Decorate" event started by Lydia, and also to Susan's Christmas Cookies Event. There's no better time than Christmas to share the goodness around, and what better way to gift something than food?!!

Tip: You can store these Peppermint and Vanilla Butter cookies in an air-tight container and refrigerate them for longer use. But it's best to refrigerate the dough until you want to make the cookies rather than storing the cookies themselves.

Update: These beautiful cookies were not only selected as one of the top 10 finalists from over 212 entries in Susan's Eat Christmas Cookies event, it actually won the Best Christmas Cookie award!! Yipppeee!!! I am so thrilled!! Thanks so much to all the judges and my readers, friends, and family who picked out these cookies as the Winner! Thanks a lot to Susan, for organizing this fun event, and also for presenting me with a fabulous Sherry Yard's new cookbook Desserts By the Yard. Now you all can look forward to more delicious desserts on this blog!!

More Cookie Recipes:
Chewy Chocolate-Chip Cookies
Marshmallow and Chocolate Mud Cookies
Delicious French Madeleines

River Deep Mountain High Actuary

2011-12-05T07:05:00.000+07:00

As actuaries we execute Risk management by the book. We dive deep into the tails of our risk sea and try to catch every small risk until we reach the value of the Planck constant.

This approach was a proven method to success during the last decades. Our current financial crisis shows us that no asset class is free of risk. This crisis forces us not only to dive deep but also to look at the high mountains of economic risks and emotional winds.....

In other words, to survive the next decades, we have to practice risk management

River Deep, Mountain High

In an excellent presentation Chris Martenson shows us that the constant doubling of debt is about tot collapse and that our economy has to make a turn.

If you got some time left in your busy actuarial life, enjoy the full presentation of Chris and define for yourself which asset classes will be strong enough to survive this mother of all crises. Determine how you're going to embed these conclusions in your actuarial models...

Chris Martenson’s presentation at the Gold & Silver Meeting in Madrid

Here's the PPT presentation of Chris.

Martenson Gold Silver Meeting Madrid 20111

Rethink your Asset Mix
If one thing becomes clear in this presentation, it's that your 'In crisis Asset Mix' will differ substantially from your 'Before Crisis Asset Mix'. By means of economic scenarios and combining financial facts with common sense, you and your board are challenged to find the right asset combination that de-risks your portfolio......

After studying Chris' presentation I'm sure you'll be a qualified 'River Deep, Mountain High Actuary' !

Sources/related Links:
- Homepage Chris Martenson
- Picture Rochat

'Trying' is hard: Youtube

Humor: Past Performance is...

2011-11-25T20:27:00.000+07:00

To protect (!) the customer more and more, investment funds feel the need - or are obligated - to communicate about the expectation of their funds' future return.

One of the most used non- or disinformation statements funds use, is the line:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results

A general lesson is that all prefab communication lines and static communication tools are doomed tot fail, as communication is context and time dependent.

Models

Just as Communication, your Actuarial, Investment or Financial Models are also context (economic, fiscal, ethics) and time dependent.

Change them upfront, as 'performance of yesterday's models is no guarantee for the future.....' ;-)

Sources:
- Free Flash Animations - Smilies by Adrian Wilman

Related:
- Disinformation: Everything You Know Is Wrong

A Better Life

2011-11-21T12:27:00.000+07:00

The new (June 2011) 'OECD Health Data 2011' report shows the latest insights in health spending costs. Here are some results for the main OECD countries:

Health Costs

Total health spending accounted on average for 9.5% of the GDP for all OECD countries (main countries: 9.8%).

Public health is a substantial part of health funding in all OECD countries.

Control Health Costs
Key question is: will relative 'big rising spenders' like The Netherlands and the U.S., be able to control their health costs in the near future?

Besides the fact that health costs undoubtedly rise sharply with age, the bulk of 'annual health spending growth' depends mainly on overall population growth, increases in the health prices and the introduction of new high-cost medical products and treatments used by all age groups.

In controlling health costs, the most difficult an challenging question is in fact:

What are we trying to maximize
with the help of health investment costs?

Our first answer could be : Maximize Health.

In practice we (countries in the world) haven't explicitly defined what we try to maximize... Unfortunately discussing health costs without a clear goal, is an endless road, leading nowhere.... A Health Mission Impossible.....

On top of, 'Health' is - at its best - a non defined subjective perception.....
Let's dive deeper on this theme of perception. Can we grasp it?

Health Perception
As in every corner of (your) life

Perception = Reality

Therefore let's take a look at how health is perceived by people in different countries. For a global 'health perception picture' we have to fall back on self-reported health status figures of around 2006-2007:

As is clear Canada and the U.S. are clear 'feeling healthy' champions, with Japan as poorest performer.

Quality and Quantity of Life
To examine whether the self-reported health status indicator (representing the quality of life) also indicates a 'longer life expectancy' (representing the quantity of life), here is the 'life expectancy indicator'.

Surprisingly the results are - at first sight - counter intuitive:

Japan, with the poorest health perception, scores best in longevity
The U.S., with the almost best health perception, scores worst in longevity

'Good health' and 'life expectancy'
It is known that elderly people report a less than average good healthy condition.

Unfortunately, as the next diagram indicates, there's no convincing direct relationship between 'perceived good health' and 'life expectancy' or 'median age' (as explaining variables) :

Reference: Japan Explained?

To find out 'what drives a health perception', we may examine one of the rare underpinned studies : "The Surveys on the Japanese National Character".

First of all there's a relationship between Economy and Health:

Though declining, more than 50% of all respondents in this survey say that "people's health will get worse".

What's even of more concern, is that younger people are experiencing an increasing feeling of nervousness during the last decades.

This survey supports the idea that perceptions of 'health' and 'happiness' are more or less embedded in a nations' culture and not related to the investments in health.

Find out more on what's going on in Japan beneath the surface on:
Assessment of the Japanese Economy

It's all about Happiness

What remains is that it's all about happiness in life....
And of course happiness and good health are 'somewhat' and 'somehow' related:

Conclusion
Maximizing or optimizing Health in on basis of 'health investments' (health costs) is tricky business. Although Happiness and Health Perception are related, they both don't relate to health investments.

The maximum price for 'good health' is subjective. Governments will have to border the maximum public financed costs of health on basis of objective goals of health condition (eg. max % obesity, BMI, etc) in relation to what's "bearable" in terms of costs in relation to the strength of their national economy.

Let's conclude with some positive news...

Your Better Life Index
I would like to invite you to take part in the Your Better Life Index.

'Your Better Life Index' was designed as s an interactive tool that allows you to see how countries perform according to the importance you give to each of 11 topics – like education, housing, environment, and so on – that contribute to well-being in OECD countries. Your Better Life Index allows you to put different weights on each of the topics, and thus to decide for yourself what contributes most to well-being.

It is a pioneering, interactive tool combining OECD substance with modern
technology in order to educate, promote dialogue and encourage consensus on the balance between societal and economic well-being. Your Better Life Index will be maintained on an ongoing basis.

Here's MY Better life index as an eample.

Live a healthy and - above all - happy life..... A Better life!

Sources
- OECD Health Data 2011 How Does the Netherlands Compare?
- OECD Health Data 2011
- Health Self-Reported Health Status
- Assessment of the Japanese Economy: A Continuing Downward Trend
- Why Does U.S. Health Care Cost So Much? ( An Aging Population Isn’t the Reason)
- The Surveys on the Japanese National Character

Related
- Does Medicare Work Better Than Private Insurance?
- Balancing Affordability and Value: The Universal Challenge in Health Care Delivery

- Spreadsheet with all health data of this blog

A Hidden Gem in Toano - Dudley's Farmhouse Grille

2011-11-18T18:38:00.000+07:00

Generally our area is not a food Mecca. We have a few shining stars, but Newport News and environs are not normally an area one would think of for fine dining with a few exceptions (Circa 1918, Trellis, Fat Canary...) Even more so Toano, a town near Williamsburg which is best known as the home of the Williamsburg Pottery Factory, but my daughter, who certainly can qualify as a foodie was looking for a new place to have dinner for her birthday and stumbled upon some positive reviews for Dudley's Farmhouse Grille. Since we were looking for a nice place for dinner, and I love trying new places to share with readers, we made a reservation for 5:30 on a Saturday, and prepared for a dining experience.

Our server took this photo-birthday girl Bridget, Molly, me and Gavin

Toano is a good 30 minutes from our house, but the drive was pleasant on a coolish October evening, We arrived a tad early and found that Dudley's was indeed a farmhouse, converted to a restaurant.offering indoor seating for 40 and outdoor seating when the elements permit. The outdoor seating area featured a lovely garden and outdoor heaters to keep outdoor diners warm. When we arrived, we were the first diners in the restaurant, and we were warmly welcomed, and seated at a nice table near the staircase. My husband immediately commented that he hoped that the lack of a crowd did not indicate the quality of the food., but his concerns were brushed aside as our server came to take our drink and appetizer orders. In preparing to go to Dudley's we had accessed their menu online so that we could each choose something we wanted, and get a chance to taste a variety of the offerings there.

This foie gras app was heaven!

We decided to order two appetizers to share- the foie gras with caramelized apples, bourbon raisins and savory maple cream and the wild boar sausage with fire roasted peppers and onions. All but my youngest tried the foie gras and declared it "amazing", every tiny morsel was consumed, the foie gras was perfectly prepared and the fruit and cream were a perfect complement to its richness. The wild boar sausage was spicy and delicious, but we all wished there had been more of the peppers and onions since we all shared, and the flavor really highlighted the spice and texture of the sausage. My husband also ordered a glass of their house wine, a Coastal Vines Merlot, which he really enjoyed. We ordered our entrees- the elk loin wrapped in Edwards bacon and served with Surry sausage and curried carrot puree for my husband, the Steak Rossini Dudley's style for the birthday girl, the Maryland crabcakes for my younger daughter, and I had the pan-seared squab. Dudley's offers a variety of game dishes and our server was very helpful (she tried to steer my husband toward ordering his elk medium-rare, but he insisted on medium-well, a decision he regretted later).

This Steak Rossini tasted even better than it looked!

Here I have to stop and say something about the dining environment at Dudley's. The restaurant is intimate without feeling cramped, the walls are adorned with art and prints that are also for sale, allowing the owner to showcase local artists and to change the scenery for diners. Service was warm and attentive, without the pretentiousness that is often evident at fine dining establishments, one of the servers, not even our own, offered to take a picture of the four of us when she saw us snapping photos. Water glasses and iced teas were filled promptly, used silverware removed smoothly and without missing a beat. Warm rolls and butter tasted as good as they smelled.

As we consumed our appetizers, the restaurant slowly filled up, and it was evident that many of the diners were regulars since the staff addressed them by first name, asking about children and knowing their "regular" favorites. Twice during the evening Chef James Kennedy circulated the room, speaking with diners at every table, asking what had been ordered or making recommendations. Clearly Chef James enjoys the interaction with his customers almost as much as cooking.

Once our entrees arrived, we were wowed - Bridget's steak was a center cut filet mignon rubbed with porcini mushroom dust, served on a portobello cap stuffed with garlic spinach and topped with foie gras and a demi glace; Gavin's elk loin was served with a side that everyone loved but was a mystery until we found from our server that they were curried carrots, and they had such a unique and different flavor. My twin squab were served with this carrot puree as well with a saute of barley and fresh corn that was simple but amazing. Molly's crabcakes were large and delicious with some roasted potatoes and served with a red pepper remoulade. The portions were generous and the side provided a subtle complement on the plate that highlighted the flavors of the entree. Everyone was delighted with their choices, and we all had a taste of each other's. My husband was wowed by the birthday girl's Steak Rossini- he said the aged beef just melted in your mouth.

Loved this Key lime pie - made in house at Dudley's

Even though we were stuffed my husband and I decided to select two desserts so we could see for ourselves if Chef James' magic touch with food extended to his desserts. Many of the desserts were made in house including the key lime pie which I ordered. The crust was crisp and just sweet enough to counter the tart lime filling that was smooth and creamy. My husband chose a chocolate mousse type cake (sorry, we both forgot the name!) that was rich and dark with just a hint of sweetness. As an aficionado of dark chocolate, it was the perfect choice.

Dudley's is a bit pricey but the food is out of the ordinary and very high quality, and portions are large. The atmosphere is charming and homey and the service is warm and attentive and not pretentious. If you have the opportunity, I would recommend heading off the beaten path and giving Dudley's a try- you won't be sorry!

Humor: Peanuts: Risk Free

2011-11-12T22:37:00.000+07:00

Risk free rates are an illusion. Risk free is an illusion. Everything in life is 'Free Risk'.... . Don't think about Risk as 'Peanuts'... It's not, as Charlie Brown, Snoopy and Woodstock show...

How to catch Risk?

2011-11-10T11:06:00.000+07:00

Desperate attempts to catch Risk in new regulatory standards like Basel (II/III) for banks and Solvency (II) for insurers seem a dead end street....

What is happening?

That's the question we're about to answer in this blog!

Here are some observations:

Risk Weighting
All new risk valuating standards are based on Risk Weighting. Some assets (or liabilities) are assumed to be more risky than others. In practice, every asset class that has been identified as more or less 'safe', has turned out to be risky after all. E.G., government bonds where - until the 2011 crisis in Greece - assumed to be risk free. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth...

Nothing in life is risk free
Tier Ratio's
Instead of simple 'Equity to Asset Ratios', Tier 1 & 2 ratios where developed. These Tier ratios only take a fraction of the total assets into account. This leads to 'Equity to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratios' that insinuate adequate, substantial and reassuring 10-15% Capital ratios, while - in fact - they're not! These kind of ratios are misleading and create a false sense of safety....

Tier Ratios lead people up the garden path
Tail Hide and Seek
As more and more risks are valued, regulated and urge for extra capital requirements, financial institutions will try to create extra return on risks that are formally not or only 'light weighted' measured. This way substantial risks are 'pushed' into the tail, fat risk tails are created and the sight on the real risks in the company becomes misty.

Overregulation decreases the effect of good risk management

Illustration: Comparison 'Deutsche Bank' - 'Bank of America'
To illustrate what is happening, let's compare a giant like "Deutsche Bank" (DB) with the number one on the banking list, the "Bank of America" (BOA).

Financial Ratios	Deutsche Bank		Bank of America
(x 1 bn $) Year:	2010	2009	2010	2009
Assets (A)	1906	1501	2265	2230
Liabilities (L)	1855	1463	2037	1999
Shareholder Equity (SE)	49	37	228	231
SE / A - Ratio	2.6%	2.4%	10.1%	10.4%
---------------------------------
Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA)	346	273	1456	1543
Assets (A)	1906	1501	2265	2230
RWA / A - Ratio	18%	18%	64%	69%
---------------------------------
Regulatory Capital (RC)	49	38	230	226
Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA)	346	273	1456	1543
Total Capital Ratio	14.1%	13.9%	15.8%	14.7%
---------------------------------
Tier 1 capital	43	34	164	160
Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA)	346	273	1456	1543
Tier 1 Capital Ratio	12.3%	12.6%	11.2%	10.4%

Although both banks have more or less the same 'Tier 1' and 'Total Capital Ratio', their individual risk profile is completely different.

In the case of DB only 18% of the assets are assumed (marked) risky, while in the case of BOA around 64% is assumed risky and taken into account for a risk weighted solvency approach.

Notice that the simple gross 'Equity to Asset' Ratio (E/A-Ratio, or in short 'EAR') of DB is only 2.6%, while the similar ratio of BOA is around 10.1%. If DB would be hit by an 5% impact loss, it would be in deep trouble.

Reflections

Our risk models have become too sophisticated and don't cover the area of 'Unkown Risk' enough. Unintentionally rand controversially, risk regulations and models make us implicitly sweep our real risks under the carpet. In principle Risks can be categorized as:

Known Risk Measured
Known Risk Unmeasured
Unknown Risk
Hidden Risk (knowingly or unknowingly)

It's time to admit that no asset or liability is completely free of risk and there's an overall substantial probability that risk - by definition - will hit eventually from an unexpected corner. To put things in perspective: In the 19th century, banks funded their assets with around 40-50% equity.

Conclusion
Including 'Unkown Risk', a simple gross E/A-Ratio (EAR) of a magnitude of 15-25% (across the total assets) would probably be the best kind of guarantee to accomplish a more sustainable financial system in the world. The new EAR could be best defined as the sum of an actuarial underpinned percentage on basis of the underlaying calculable covered risks and a TBD overall 10% 'add up' for unknown risks:

E/A-Ratio = EAR = EAR_{[ calculable risk ]} + EAR_{[ unknown risk ]}

Until we've included Unkown Risk fully in our risk models, we'll stay in deep trouble.

Aftermath: 'Avatar Ratios'
To rate a company (bank), often it's not enough to look at just the traditional financial ratios. An interesting way to additionally rate a company in a more sophisticated way, is with the help of so - by me - called 'Avatar Ratios'.

Additional to financial ratios, 'Avatar Ratios' tell you more about what the intentions, (real) important issues and the 'drive' of a company and its employees are.

An 'Avatar Ratio Analysis' gives you more or less 'the embodiment' of all what drives a company. It can be constructed by making a word analysis of a crucial document or annual report of a company. In short: You simply download the annual report (or any other company characteristic document) and analyze it with a 'Word Frequency Counter' like WriteWords.

IAA Demo
As a demo, let's analyze the IAA's Strategic Plan

Frequency	Word
21	actuarial
10	strategic
10	develop
8	associations
6	standards
6	priorities
6	plans
6	objective
6	action
5	promote
5	profession
5	member
5	international
5	iaa
5	association
4	practice
4	maintain
4	key
4	global
4	encourage
4	education
3	worldwide
3	statement
3	relationships
3	plan
3	including
3	identify
3	establish
3	common
3	discussion
2	world
2	values
2	supranational
2	support
2	services
2	risk
2	relevant
2	provide
2	program
2	professionalism
2	professional
2	prioritize
2	principles
2	organizations
2	organization
2	mission
2	march
2	management
2	links
2	issues
2	internationale
2	help
2	fields
2	facilitate
2	countries
2	contact
2	conduct
2	areas
2	area
2	approved
2	among
2	actuaries
2	actuarielle
1	voluntary
1	vision
1	understanding
1	transparency
1	traditional
1	stakeholders
1	soundness
1	society
1	social
1	skills
1	sections
1	scope
1	scientific
1	role
1	review
1	research
1	reputation
1	relationship
1	regional
1	recommended
1	recognized
1	recognition
1	quality
1	public
1	protection
1	promotion
1	process
1	procedures
1	presidents
1	offered
1	objectivity
1	objectives
1	needs
1	model
1	members
1	knowledge
1	jurisdictions
1	involvement
1	integrity
1	improve
1	guidelines
1	forums
1	forum
1	financial
1	feasibility
1	experiences
1	expansion
1	examine
1	ensure
1	enhance
1	disciplinary
1	developing
1	developed
1	designation
1	decisions
1	decision
1	credential
1	create
1	cooperation
1	convergence
1	contributing
1	continuing
1	constructing
1	code
1	changing
1	availability
1	audiences
1	active
1	achieve
1	accountability
1	access

With the help of WriteWords we first create (on line) a frequency table. Next we cut out irrelevant words like 'and', 'the', etc.

Here are the results:
(1) a scrollable frequency table of all relevant words
(2) a 'Top 22 words' frequency table

In most cases - like this one - the result of simply putting the first 10 to 15 words in the top of the frequency table behind each other, is astonishing: It creates a kind of 'Identity Statement'. Here's the result for IAA's strategic plan, where even more than 20 words give a beautiful comprised identity statement:

IAA's Strategic Plan (Identity Statement comprised with WriteWords)
Actuarial strategic develop associations. Standards, priorities plans objective action. Promote profession member international. IAA association practice maintain key. Global encourage education worldwide.

Avatar Analysis: Comparison 'Deutsche Bank' - 'Bank of America'

Let's now go back to our banking case and compare 'Deutsche Bank' (DB) and the 'Bank of America' (BOA) with the help of a simple Avatar Ratio Analysis.

The Avatar Ratio Analys presents the word frequency (absolute numbers) and their relative frequency (= word frequency / total number of word in document). Here is the result:

Avatar Ratios	Deutsche Bank		Bank of America
	Freq.	Perc.	Freq.	Perc.
Governance	109	0.06%	25	0.02%
Risk	1458	0.79%	852	0.53%
Control	273	0.15%	156	0.10%
Total G+R+C	1840	1.00%	1033	0.64%
------------------
Client/Customer	359	0.20%	250	0.15%
Shareholder	169	0.09%	162	0.10%
------------------
Transparent	15	0.01%	2	0.00%
------------------
Employee	153	0.08%	63	0.04%
Director	40	0.02%	23	0.01%
------------------
Profit, Income	1001	0.54%	835	0.52%
------------------
Tot. nr. of words	161579	100%	184048	100%

Although I'll leave the final conclusions up to you, here are some remarkable observations:

Total number of words
Both companies (DB and BOA) need an enormous amount of words to explain their environment (clients, shareholders, rating agencies, etc) the essentials about what's going on in their company in a modest calendar year.

To read an annual report of about 170,000 words, it would take an average reader (reading speed 200 to 250 words per minute) about 10-12 hours.

Perhaps you, as an actuary, can read faster ( test it!: speed reading test ), but even at a speed of 500 wpm it would be an enormous task (5-6 hours) to fulfill.
Governance, Risk & Control
It's clear that DB puts much more energy (+60%) in communicating about themes as Governance Risk and Control than BOA. Also is clear that DB is far more transparent in its communication than BOA. This does (of course) not imply that BOA's risk and control frame is inferior to DB's. It could even be the opposite. It just shows that (and how) BOA handles and communicates differently (less open) from DB.
Profit, Income, Shareholders + Clients and Employees
DB and BOA weight Profit, Income and shareholders on more or less the same level. Both rank client/customer above shareholders. DB gives 'clients/customers' as well as employees double the attention of BOA!

At last
Next time you report to your board, include an Avatar Analysis of your report in your presentation!

Humor: FoxTrot Actuarial Models

2011-11-03T04:26:00.000+07:00

Sources:
- Foxtrot Comic Strips
- Foxtrot on Gocomics

Sustainable Discount Rates

2011-11-01T19:37:00.000+07:00

Steering pension funds on a 'one point' Coverage Ratio is like trying to proof global warming on a hot summer day...... It's useless.

Why?

First of all the complete pension fund balance sheet is based on market value.

As there is no substantial market for pension liabilities, this implies that pension liabilities have to be valued on basis of some kind of arbitrary (artificial) method.

In the U.S. this has led to the (irresponsible) high discount rate of 8% for state pension funds based on the 'expected' long term return without a kind of correction (subtraction) for 'risk'.

In de Dutch market, pension funds have to rate their liabilities on basis of a maturity dependable risk free interest rate, the ‘Nominal interest Rate Term Structure’ (RTS), as ordered by DNB (the Dutch Regulator).

Here's the outcome of this risk free interest rate (RTS) over the past 10 years, including the 10-y average RTS...

Ever since DNB ordered this 'artificial discounting method', pension fund board members didn't get a good night sleep. As the RTS juggles on a daily basis, every morning pension members wake up with the latest 'RTS news surprise of the day'.

You can play the RTS juggle (worm) here:

As coverage ratios are based on the RTS, they shuttle hither and thither as well and executing a long term pension fund strategy becomes more or less like riding the famous (market) bull in a rodeo show.

On a Dutch IPE congress, Angelien Kemna - chief investment officer of the €270bn asset manager APG - warned that the current swap-curve discount criterion forces pension funds to take unwise "significant long-term measures".

Kemna favors an average yield curve or a more straightened version of the current one for discounting liabilities.

The new Dutch Pensions Agreement foresees that pension funds can choose their own discount rate, as pensions are no longer guaranteed!

Indeed, it's time to stop this complex discount circus. But it's also time to stop 'one point estimate' Coverage Ratio steering.

A new look
Let's take a look at a characteristic discount rate dependence of a traditional pension fund like ABP.

Valuing ABP at an (derived average) RTS of 2.69% (September 2011), ABP's discounted assets fail to meet the discounted liabilities, leading to a coverage ratio of around 90%.

However this kind of risk free valuing is - for sure - too conservative, as ABP's aims at an underpinned strategic expected return of 6,1% on the long term and has a convincing track record of 5 and 10-year moving average returns:

Returns (%) Pension Fund ABP 2993-2010
Year	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Yearly Return	16.5	-1.0	16.4	11.8	11.9	12.9	10.0	3.2	-0.7	-7.2	11.0	11.5	12.8	9.5	3.8	-20.2	20.2	13.5
5Y MA Return					10.9	10.2	12.6	9.9	7.3	3.4	3.0	3.3	5.2	7.2	9.7	2.7	4.2	4.4
10Y MA Return										7.1	6.6	7.8	7.5	7.3	6.5	2.9	3.8	4.8

Or in Graphics:

As long as a pension fund (like ABP) continues to perform (on 5 or 10-years moving average) rates that outperform the (derived average) risk free discount rate, it's seems ridiculous to force such a pension fund to discount at a 'risk free rate', as this obliges the fund to change his strategic asset mix to a less risky mix and an suboptimal return.
In turn, these suboptimal returns will lead to an asset shortage. With a vicious cycle of decreasing risk as a fatal result in the end.

Sustainable Discount Rates
In an excellent discussion paper (2006) Jürg Tobler-Oswald proves that the optimal discount rate lies between the risk free rate (RFR) and the investment strategy’s expected return (ER) depending on how good the hedge against the fund’s cash flow provided by its investments is:

Discount Rate₁ = RFR + F_{Cash Flow}(RFR-ER)

Another - more simple and practible - discount rate could be defined as the average between the free discount rate and the X-year (e.g. X=5, or 10) Moving Average Return of the last X-Years (MAR(X)).

Discount Rate₂ = [ RFR + MAR(X) ] /2

As long as MAR(10), MAR(5) and ER stay larger than the interest rate that matches a coverage ratio of 100%, discounting by means of one of the new sustainable discount methods seems sound and safe......

Whats left is that the average (geometric) risk premiums during the last 10 years have turned out negative:

Historical Equity Risk Premiums (ERP)
	ERP: Stocks minus T.Bills		ERP: Stocks minus T.Bonds
Period	Arithmetic	Geometric	Arithmetic	Geometric
1928-2010	7.62%	5.67%	6.03%	4.31%
1960-2010	5.83%	4.44%	4.13%	3.09%
2000-2010	1.37%	-0.79%	-2.26%	-4.11%

This implies (moreover) that it is important that the discounting rate of a pension fund should be based on a sustainable sound weighted mix of:
(1) proven historical performance
(2) a 'save' risk free rate
(3) realistic future return assumptions

Related Links/ Sources
- Kemna IPE article (2011)
- An investment based valuation approach for pension fund cash flows (2006)
- Ignoring the risk in risk premium in State Pensions(2011)
- DB: What went wrong? (2011)
- Actuary.org: Pension Fund Valuation and Market Values (2000)
- Aswath Damodaran: Equity-risk-premiums-2011-edition
- Dutch: ABP coverage ratio

What's a Greek Tragedy?

2011-10-23T06:07:00.000+07:00

As actuaries we do not believe in miracles, or do we?

According to a 'strictly confidential' document from the Troika (= EC, IMF & ECB), Greek's Debt/GDP ratio suddenly raised from 149% to 186% in 2013!

This new insight causes a 'potential need for additional official financing' ranging up to €440 billion!! (are you still with me?)

Let's take a look at how Debt/GDP ratio developed in the past and the new optimistic Troika forecast (red line).

Just to help the Troika, I've added a non-miracle 'Maggid' forecast based on simple and more realistic economic principles.

Not a word in the Troika report about the drivers and cultural changes that are necessary to achieve a long term decrease of the Debt/GDP ratio. Everything is based on suggestive mathematical art.

Continue throwing good money after bad, is not the way forward. Greece will first have to show that it is not only willing, but also achieving debt reduction. Current measures are insufficient. Start for example to raise retirement age to 65 as a beginning...

Let's pray European leaders give up Keynesian miracle thinking and take the right decision:

Stop helping Greece to finance their debt, unless Greece shows strong progress in reducing debt itself every month .

If not.., the line 'A Greek Tragedy' will get a new meaning....

Sources/Links:
- Troika report
- Zerohedge: Greece
- Retirement around the globe blog

Fun & Healthy Halloween Recipes

2011-10-22T00:43:00.000+07:00

Halloween is a time that's often associated with sugary snacks like chocolate and candy, which can leave your kids wired on sugar and without the nutrition they need. However years of studying at an online university has taught me that just because a snack is healthy doesn't mean it has to be boring, remotely expensive or take a bunch of time to make.

Halloween provides the perfect time to sneak in healthy food items in creative ways. Your kids will have so much fun creating and eating these snacks, they won't even care they are eating fruits, veggies and whole-grains. These few examples are just a start to the many different snack options you can come up with by simply using your imagination and getting in the Halloween spirit!

Apple Bites
These apple bites look like they can bite back, but provide the healthy vitamins and fiber from the apples, as well as the important protein from the almonds.

* First, take an apple of any kind and slice it into quarters. Be sure to remove the core and seeds from each quarter.
* Dunk the apple in a quick bath of lemon juice to prevent the apple from browning.
* Lay the apple quarter on a plate with the peel facing you.
* Cut a wedge from the skin side to create the look of an open mouth.
* Take slivered almonds and stick them into the top and bottom of the wedge all the way across to create the look of “jagged” teeth.

Ghost Toasts
A simple slice of bread and cream cheese spread can quickly become a ghostly snack by using a ghost cookie cutter. Use whole-grain bread and trade out full-fat cream cheese for low-fat or fat-free versions.

* Press a ghost-shaped cookie cutter against the bread firmly until it cuts through to the plate, and lift away.
* Take a knife and spread a light coating of cream cheese over the bread.
* Add two raisins for eyes and a third for a moaning mouth. To make this recipe even healthier, use a whole grain bread for additional fiber and nutrients, and trade out regular cream cheese for a low-fat or fat free version. You can take this idea even further by using any Halloween cutter to shape any piece of bread. Cut out two of the same shapes for making a sandwich, or keep it open faced and decorate with sliced almonds, dried fruits, cut up cheese, or any other favorite topping.

Eerie Eyeballs
Turn dried fruit into eerie eyeballs by simply layering apple rings, dried apricots and raisins on top of each other.

* Take your dried apple ring and place on a clean cutting board. Take the palm of your hand and place pressure on the ring to help make it flat.
* Next, take a dried apricot and slice it in half.
* Take the sticky side of the half and place it over the hole in the apple ring.
* Take a pair of clean kitchen sheers and cut a raisin in half.
* Place the sticky side of the raisin down on the apricot half. This will create the effect of a spooky eyeball.

Boonannas
For a potassium rich snack, try making these! If you want, you can also throw these in the freezer for a frozen snack when your kids get home from school!

* Peel a ripe banana. Cut the banana in half and dip it in a glass of orange juice.
* Move the banana directly from the glass to a zip lock bag full of coconut shakes. Shake the bag gently until the banana is completely covered in coconut.
* Press two currants into the banana towards the top and stick a few chocolate chips for the eyes. and stick on a Popsicle stick for easier eating.

As you can see, including healthy snacks this October into your kids' meals can be quick and easy-- while still providing a fun holiday snack time experience. Even if your children still go out and trick or treat, or take part in other holiday goodies, you can rest assured in knowing that your children are still getting healthy snacks along the way!

This is a guest post written by Tracy, who has always had a deep passion in ensuring quality education is available for all who want to attend college. Tracy understands all online colleges aren't created equal and for the past few years has helped spread the message of the level of education, convenience and opportunity Online University can provide students.

Humor: Actuary Scrooge

2011-10-15T03:32:00.000+07:00

Today's Brainer:What's the difference between a pension fund and an investment fund?

Actuary $crooge shows...

source

On Line DIY European Stress Test

2011-10-09T14:34:00.000+07:00

Thomson Reuters' Breakingviews now presents an on line DIY stress test. Change the Tier 1 ratio and haircuts of the PIIGS countries and find out the capital shortfall of Europe and the shortfal of individual European banks.

An explanation can be found here and there is also an Excel spreadsheet.

Enjoy stress testing!

New Tattoos by Noah

2011-10-09T03:15:00.000+07:00

Download these and more at Noah Sim Studio

4ESF Conversions by Milana25

2011-10-09T03:13:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims 3 Models

Castle of Dark Age by -Shady-

2011-10-09T03:11:00.000+07:00

Download at Mod The Sims

Flower Tattoo by Anulaa89

2011-10-09T03:09:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims 3 World by Anulaa89

This & That by Sandy

2011-10-08T16:27:00.000+07:00

Set includes: Square Farm Table for Eight, Chair, Bag of Groceries, Vegetable Stand, Ouija Board (deco and cloned/chessboard), Printer, Phone-Fax (functional and deco) and Newspaper Holder / Bookcase / Storage.

Download at Around The Sims

Villa Rika by denizzo_ist

2011-10-08T15:24:00.000+07:00

Download at SimsTR

Modern Country Dining Set by Dorosimfan1

2011-10-08T15:10:00.000+07:00

Set includes: Bar, Table, Stool with Bag, Briefcase, Cabinets, Plants, Jars and Lamp.

Download at Sims 3 Marketplace - Registration required

Circe Kitchen Set by Breeze Sims 3

2011-10-08T15:00:00.000+07:00

Download at Breeze Sims 3

Hello Kitty Paintings by Anulaa89

2011-10-08T14:55:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims 3 World by Anulaa89

New Living Set by Simmami

2011-10-08T14:48:00.000+07:00

Set includes: Bookcase, TVs, Wall Cabinets, 3 Closets, Base Unit/Coffee Tables, Chairs, Sofa, Vase and Bowl.

Download at Sims 3 Marketplace - Registration required

What's a world without Jobs?

2011-10-08T13:50:00.000+07:00

On Wednesday night 5th October, Apple co-founder, former CEO and chairman Steve Jobs, passed away..

Steve Jobs' life is an example to all of us. In an excellent and catching speech, Steve urged graduates to pursue their dreams and pick up the opportunities in life's setbacks at the university's 114th Commencement on June 12, 2005.

What - besides Steve's phenomenal contributions to computer technology and marketing - did Steve contribute to the profession of Risk Management?

Steve Jobs' Risk Management Lessons
Here are (derived from his 2005 Stanford speech) some inspiring lessons from Steve. Lessons we can apply 'one to one' on Risk Management (my comments in Italic):

Connect 'the dots' in life
It's impossible to connect the dots looking forward,you can only connect them looking backwards, later in life. Do so!

To turn Risk Management into an opportunity, we can't look in a crystal ball. We'll have to explore and have to allow ourselves some experiments and non-conventional ideas to finally see the bigger picture that turns marginal new business developments into one new final integral success!

Try to develop 'Risk Oversight' (connecting the dots) as Risk Oversight is negatively related to risk and positively related to shareholder value (Research Stanford University).
Trust
You have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.
Believe in something and follow your heart, even if it leads you of the well-worn path..

Make Risk management supportive and not dominant to what you want to achieve in life or business. It's positive when companies Ideas and Vision sometimes conflict with inner and outer notions.

To grow a plant (company) in soil (society) is takes opposite 'nutrients' (and circumstances) like water and sun that feed your seed (idea).

Accept that your heart, gut feeling and helicopter view are sometimes more leading than the rationale of your Risk management (what your brain thinks). The more and the longer you are able to manage this paradox, the more likely success will come your way eventually.

Keep all the above decision elements in ('a paradoxical') place. Remember Shareholder Value and Sustainability are a function of Risk, so don't pull the plug too soon!
Love and Loss
Making mistakes is an inherent part of life and doing business.

If you (or something you started) fails, start over!

The effect of less sureness by 'starting over', inspires for exploring new directions and becoming creative again.

'Love what you do' is the most important leading statement to proceed in life and business.

'Sometimes life hits you with a brick'. Don’t lose faith.Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.

Risk Management exists by the grace of losses that occur. Accept that as a fact. Therefore, if no losses occur anymore, your Risk Management program is actually dead without a clue. It will certainly fail eventually.

Getting knocked down by a 'brick' like in the current financial crisis, is a sign that we have to redesign our Risk Management programs instead of intensifying existing programs like Basel II /III and Solvency II. Get out!

New Risk Management will have to focus on how to prevent and to DEAL with risk, instead of sophisticated capitalizing risk as Dead Risk Capital. Rather than focus on reducing risk, risk-transformation — that is, capitalizing risk in such a way that its value creation potential is maximized - seems the right way forward.
Death
If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right. Remembering you'll die is the most important tool to help you make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important.

Remembering that you are going to die is the best way to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose.

Risk Management is about making choices and giving up less important issues for more important.
It's about generating focus on what really matters for sustainability or results, instead of trying to manage everything.

Good Risk management therefore urges for CEO and Board rewards that reflect the downside risk of a company's default instead of just rewarding upward and short term profit.

Company bonuses should therefore be positive as well as negative performance related.

Remember, just like Steve Jobs, Risk Management is about 'failing better than anyone else' .....

Related/Sources:
- Steve Jobs: He Thinks Different (2004)
- Was Steve Jobs Practicing Proactive Risk Management? (2010)
- The Role of the Board in Corporate Risk Oversight (Stanford University 2010)
- Dead Risk Capital

Evening Gowns by Judie

2011-10-08T00:04:00.000+07:00

Download at All About Style

AF Formal Page 4

DANBO by NewOne

2011-10-07T23:56:00.000+07:00

Download at One Billion Pixels

Lingerie Collection for Teen - Elder Females by Rusty Nail

2011-10-07T23:54:00.000+07:00

Download at Rusty Nail

Tina May by NergoElle

2011-10-07T23:52:00.000+07:00

Download at NergoElle Sims3

3 Ely Court Riverview by susieb

2011-10-07T23:48:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims Crossing

New Sim & New Non-Default Face Skintone by Shyne

2011-10-07T23:45:00.000+07:00

Download at CStyles

Bath in Lake Pose Set by Buhudain

2011-10-07T23:40:00.000+07:00

Download at Abnormal SIM Simulation Center

Sims by Loverdag

2011-10-07T23:30:00.000+07:00

Download at Loverdag's Weird Sims

New Bathroom Set by Doylataguerra

2011-10-07T23:11:00.000+07:00

Download at Doylataguerra

Powerpuff Girls T-Shirt by Anulaa89

2011-10-07T23:08:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims 3 World by Anulaa89

New Dining Set by Bobo

2011-10-07T23:06:00.000+07:00

Download at rpb design - registration required

New Things at The Sims 3 Store

2011-10-07T04:23:00.000+07:00

Boho Vintage Men's Collection

Laid back or ready to spread some love, your Sim will be ready to show off their relaxed style with this Bohemian inspired apparel caboodle.

1,100 SimPoints

Vineyard Villa Furnishings

Bring the scenery of the Vineyard home with this collection of home effects that are sure to please.

900 SimPoints

Fall Fruition

It's time to feast and give thanks for friends, family and more awesome stuff to decorate with!

Free

Viva Las Vegas Bedroom

Do you have the winning spirit but could use some extra luck? This pack might not give you that million Simoleon win, but it'll make you feel like a winner in your own home!

950 SimPoints

Regency Arcade

Add some dash of class and a ton of fun to your Sims neighborhood with the Regency Arcade! This hangout offers a whole new level of fun for your Sims wrapped in a stylish Regency architecture theme.

~~1,700 SimPoints~~

1,500 SimPoints

Sale ends: 10/21/11

October 2011 Compilation

Get everything new for the month of October with just one easy click! This compilation includes Boho Vintage Men's Collection, Fall Fruition, Vineyard Villa Furnishings, Viva Las Vegas Bedroom and the magnificent Regency Arcade!
This is a new object!

This set contains items from the following sets:

Viva Las Vegas Bedroom
Boho Vintage Men's Collection
Regency Arcade
Vineyard Villa Furnishings
Fall Fruition

3,800 SimPoints

Gumball Machine

Classic Gumball Machine

Sure to cure any sweet tooth for the young and old, this refillable Gumball Machine will give your Sim a sugar rush with each tasty chewable treat. Warning: Over consumption can result in upset stomachs and a very sick Sim!

Satisfy your Sims sweet tooth with the new gumball machine! Sims can fill this machine with gumballs and get a quick snack at any time. Rebellious and grumpy Sims can even kick the machine to get a free gumball or two. Be careful, though, sometimes this machine fights back…

400 SimPoints

China Town by -Shady-

2011-10-07T03:23:00.000+07:00

Download at Mod The Sims

Laced Bra & Panties by NyGirl

2011-10-07T03:06:00.000+07:00

Download at NyGirl Sims

New Patterns by Claudia

2011-10-07T03:00:00.000+07:00

Download at Clausims

Cabinets and Decor by Kardofe

2011-10-07T02:17:00.000+07:00

Download at Kardofe Construction and Decoration

New Wallpaper by Yarona

2011-10-07T02:12:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims 3 Models

City Hall Replacement by NEN

2011-10-07T02:08:00.000+07:00

Download at NeverEndingNight

New Dress for Adult Females by Justin_58

2011-10-07T02:05:00.000+07:00

Download at Prada Sims

Paintings by Plus10dolansu

2011-10-07T02:03:00.000+07:00

Download at Plus10dolansu

Villa Karin by JarkaD

2011-10-06T16:00:00.000+07:00

Download at JarkaD Sims 3 Blog

Fishnet Stockings for Males & Females - 4 Styles

2011-10-06T15:40:00.000+07:00

Download at Newsea

Pose Set 3 by Re Maron

2011-10-06T15:38:00.000+07:00

Download at R2M Creations

Skull / Skeleton Chopper Motorcycle by lhawk07

2011-10-06T15:35:00.000+07:00

Download at Mod The Sims

New Living/Bedroom Set by Souris

2011-10-06T15:30:00.000+07:00

Set includes: Sofa, Coffee Table, Chair, Table, Fireplace, Room Divider, Bed, Sculptures and Rug.

Download at Khany Sims

New Clothing for Adult Females by Soft Rain

2011-10-06T15:27:00.000+07:00

Download at Soft Rain

L'Usine à vin by Samelo22

2011-10-06T15:25:00.000+07:00

Download at Créa Sims 3

Boots and Stockings by Soft Rain

2011-10-06T15:22:00.000+07:00

Download at Soft Rain

Shiftable Deco Mirrors by Cameranutz II

2011-10-06T15:20:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims Crossing

Les P'tits Loups by Guardgian

2011-10-06T15:15:00.000+07:00

Download at Khany Sims

New Accessory by Soft Rain

2011-10-06T15:12:00.000+07:00

Download at Soft Rain

New Living Set by JomSims

2011-10-06T15:10:00.000+07:00

Download at JomSims3

New Lamps by Beryl

2011-10-06T15:05:00.000+07:00

Download at La Buhardilla de Beryl

New Things by Jennifer

2011-10-06T14:42:00.000+07:00

Download at Jenni Sims - registration required

Hair 036 for Females by Butterfly Sims

2011-10-05T16:42:00.000+07:00

Download at Butterfly Sims

Thanks, Anon:)

File name:
ButterflySims3-F-afhair036

Woodland Fantasy/Fairy Swingset by lhawk07

2011-10-05T16:14:00.000+07:00

Download at Mod The Sims

Peggy Hair 792 ~ Pooklet'd for all ages by Anubis360

2011-10-05T16:11:00.000+07:00

Download at Anubis Under The Sun/Facebook

Other versions - Peggy - Lotus

Will add names later
Thanks, Anon:)

Ridgewater by Arthur & Jamie

2011-10-05T15:55:00.000+07:00

Download at iPlaySims

Chinese Dining Set by Qingshuangtongzi

2011-10-05T15:52:00.000+07:00

Download at M&T Sims

Ankle Boots With Belt by Candy Lover

2011-10-05T15:50:00.000+07:00

Download at Candy Lover's Blog

Abstract Pattern 10 by DOmiNICZKA

2011-10-05T15:45:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims 3 Design

Vampire Hunter by Enirei

2011-10-05T15:40:00.000+07:00

A new pie menu called "Hunter" appears with the option to "dust" the vampire. Clicking dust will cause the two to fight and one will come out the winner with the loser dying (turning to dust if a vampire). Below is a successful "dusting".

Read more and download at Mod The Sims

Classic Push Up Bra by NyGirl

2011-10-05T15:35:00.000+07:00

Download at NyGirl Sims

No Hunger Loss for Sleeping Ones by Tremerion

2011-10-05T15:22:00.000+07:00

This mod will stop Hunger from decaying when sim is sleeping. So he/she will wake up with Hunger at the same level it was when he/she was going to bed.

Read more and download at Mod The Sims

New Clothing for Adult Females by Xiaoxie

2011-10-05T15:15:00.000+07:00

Download at Xiaoxie's Blog

Thanks, Anon:)

Halloween Demon Accessories Set by CloudwalkerNZ

2011-10-05T15:10:00.000+07:00

Download at CloudwalkerNZ's Sims 3 Blog

New Dress for Adult Females by Justin_58

2011-10-05T15:03:00.000+07:00

Download at Prada Sims

New Posters by Anulaa89

2011-10-05T14:46:00.000+07:00

Download at Anulaa89's Blog

New Sims by Dexi

2011-10-05T14:36:00.000+07:00

Download at Dexi's Blog

New Jeans for Adult Males by Darko

2011-10-05T02:22:00.000+07:00

Download at Darko Sims3

New Outfit for Adult Females by Lore

2011-10-05T02:20:00.000+07:00

Download at Lorandia Sims

AF Everyday

Full Family Shiny Bronze Skintone by Klavix

2011-10-05T02:18:00.000+07:00

Download at M&T Sims

Ruffle Tank PJ's by NyGirl

2011-10-05T02:16:00.000+07:00

Download at NyGirl Sims

New Lots by Dan Thao

2011-10-05T02:14:00.000+07:00

Download at Chopin of November

Candy Set for Teen Females by Ekinege

2011-10-05T02:12:00.000+07:00

Download at SimsTR

Healthy Carrot Croquettes

2011-10-05T01:34:00.000+07:00

As a mom, I am always on the look-out for healthy delicious recipes for my child, and as she is still a toddler, finger foods seem to top the list. Last week, I came across these beautiful Carrot Croquettes on Patricia's blog [photo courtesy Technicolor Kitchen]. They were delicious to look at, and I knew these would appeal to my whole family. But as I was going through the ingredient list, I saw that it contained Apricots along with the carrots. Fruit and veggies, both together in one recipe?! I had to try it to know if this works, and I am so thrilled to say that it does work! I didn't have apricots, so I threw in some dried cranberries, and also added a bunch of chopped cilantro along with the parsley. The recipe also includes some almonds - fruits, veggies and nuts, plus its Baked - how much more nutritious can a recipe get!

This recipe is a wonderful change from the tried and tested Potato croquettes. It has a balanced nutritional value, and kids can eat these even while running around in the backyard! If you are looking for an ideal finger food for your kids, or a delicious appetizer for your pot-lucks, this one is for you!

Healthy Carrot Croquettes
Makes about 25 patties

5 medium carrots, peeled and coarsely chopped
3/4 cup day-old white breadcrumbs + more for coating the croquettes
5 dried apricots, finely diced
2 spring onions, thinly sliced
3 tablespoons flaked almonds
1 garlic clove, crushed
1/2 cup packed flat-leaf parsley leaves, finely chopped
finely grated zest of 2 lemons
1 egg
salt and black pepper - to taste
2 tablespoons olive oil, for shallow-frying

Method
Steam carrots in a steamer over a saucepan of boiling water until tender (20-25 minutes). Transfer to a bowl and mash them to make a smooth purée.

Now add the breadcrumbs, apricots, spring onions, almonds, garlic, parsley, lemon zest, egg, and season to taste by adding salt and pepper.

Mix it all together to form a soft dough, adding more breadcrumbs if dough is too sticky. Divide into 25 equal portions. Roll each portion between your palms to make a croquette or a patty, if you like.

Place all croquettes on a tray lined with baking paper and refrigerate until firm, about 1-2 hours.

Preheat the oven to 200°C/400°F. Heat olive oil in a deep-sided frying pan over medium-high heat. Roll the croquettes in the breadcrumbs, then cook them in the olive oil, in batches, until golden on the outside. Transfer to a baking sheet and bake for 15-20 minutes or until cooked through. This double-cooking method might sound like extra work, but believe me, it really works in developing a nice crisp outer texture for the croquettes.

Once done, serve these warm with your favorite sipping sauce on the side.

Related Recipes
Healthy Carrot Cookies
Paneer & Asparagus Lollipops
Cranberry & Cream Cheese Dip
Baked Sweet Potato Fries

Presents For Everyone by BlackSweety

2011-10-04T15:40:00.000+07:00

Download at One More Sim by BlackSweety

1. FAMILY birdhouse, misc decor. 2. 3d LOVE wall hanging, paintings. 3. Vintage Paris painting. 4. FRIENDS birdhouse, misc decor. 5. Just a pillow, misc decor. 6. Bigger FAITH birdhouse, misc decor. 7. Eiffel tower sculpture, misc decor.

1. LOVE mirror. 2. Sci-fi mirror. 3. Fancy chair, dining chairs. 4. Spider chair, dining chairs. 5. Transparent chair, dining chairs. Not recolorable! 6. Fork chair, dining chairs.

Supernatural Inspired Posters

Equus - Feed Room Collection

2011-10-04T15:35:00.000+07:00

Download at Equus-Sims

Poses by Severinka

2011-10-04T15:24:00.000+07:00

Download these and more at Sims by Severinka

Skateboarders

Martial Arts

Fashion

Hill Crest House by Gardenof

2011-10-04T15:10:00.000+07:00

Download at Black Pearl Sims

Thanks, Anon:)

Race Car Bed for Kids/Teens by lhawk07

2011-10-04T15:00:00.000+07:00

Download at Mod The Sims

Gabrielle Roth by Sisaly

2011-10-04T14:54:00.000+07:00

Download at Mod The Sims

Cazy Sky Retextures by Metalmoose

2011-10-04T14:50:00.000+07:00

Download at Metalmoose's Blog

Cazy version here

File names:

Moose'd - Wrong With Your Life (AS Cazy Sky -M)
Moose'd - Wrong With Your Life (EAC Cazy Sky -M)

Ceramic Wall Panel by Severinka

2011-10-04T14:44:00.000+07:00

Download at Sims by Severinka

Paintings by Severinka

2011-10-04T14:41:00.000+07:00

Download these and more at Sims by Severinka